annette obrestad justin smith poker quiz

Poker Pop Quiz: Can She Fold a Flush After This Brutally Bad Turn Card?

Its a $200/$400 no-limit hold’em game on Poker After Dark, and this hand takes place between Justin Smith and Annette Orbestad.

After opening from the cutoff, Smith is called by Orbestad and the two take it heads-up to the flop- and boy is it a nasty one.

Hand History

The game is $200/$400 No Limit Hold’em. Justin Smith has $76,000 in his stack and Annette Obrestad covers.

Preflop

Orbestad is on the button with:
  

Justin Smith raises to $1200 from the Cutoff. Only Obrestad calls.

Flop (Pot: $3,300)

The flop is

Smith checks. Orbestad bets $2,600. Smith Calls.

Turn (Pot: $8,500)

The turn is the

Smith checks. Orbestad bets $6,000. Smith Calls.

River (Pot: $20,500)

The river is the

Smith checks. Orbestad bets $30,000. Smith raises to $66,400 all-in

Time to make your decision. Call or fold?

Take a moment to decide. Click “Show” for the results or watch the video below.

Obrestad folds.

Smith drags the pot as he mucks  for a full house

Pro Analysis from Doug Polk

Annette has a really tough decision to make.She has a few bluffs and lower flushes in her range that she will have to fold, but what hands should she be calling with?

Obviously she will call with full houses, but if she only calls with full houses, Justin starts to get a pretty good price on his bluff. Justin is risking $66,000 to win $50,000, so if Annette starts folding more than ~60% of the time, Justin’s bluff becomes incredibly profitable.

Annette definitely has to call some hands here- low flushes seem like folds, full houses are easy calls and high flushes seem close. This spot is so close it doesn’t matter much which way you go, but I lean towards folding this specific hand.

Free Guide: 20 Rules for Playing Flush Draws in 2017

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I used to play a ton of poker. Now I help operate UpswingPoker.com.

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